Connection queues of four to seven years, transformers delivered in five years, capacity prices multiplied by nine on PJM: the network is becoming the limiting factor of AI.
An analysis published on September 19, 2026 puts the capacity announcements in their place: about 12 gigawatts of AI data centers were to be launched this year in the United States, but only about 5 gigawatts actually started. A new-generation campus alone requires between 500 megawatts and more than one gigawatt in continuous operation.
The bottleneck is physical. In the most sought-after areas—northern Virginia, Phoenix, Dallas—connection queues span four to seven years, and some transformers operate with five years of delay. In the PJM capacity market, the price has increased from $36 per megawatt-day since 2024; data centers would account for 63% of this increase, or $9.3 billion passed on to invoices.
The promised nuclear, but not for several years
The answers announced are mainly medium-term: the restart of Three Mile Island Unit 1, renamed Crane Clean Energy Center, is expected in 2027 under a 20-year contract with Microsoft and $16 billion, while the small modular TerraPower reactors for Meta and Oklo for Amazon are not expected until 2032. The gap is in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia targets 6.6 gigawatts for HUMAN by 2034 but only operates 467 megawatts, and some 4,000 megawatts of projects announced in the region have not yet delivered any electricity.
Read the full article on the original source
Go to the source →