AI e-waste: between 395 and 617 million tons by 2050, according to the Basel Action Network

The NGO estimates that academic projections underestimate the problem by a factor of 40 to 60, because they only look at GPUs — only 13% of the weight of a data center.

Basel Action Network, an organization specializing in hazardous waste, published "How Big Is the AI Waste Wave? The first part of a series of four. Its estimate for the period 2025-2050 ranges from 395 to 617 million tonnes of electronic waste, equivalent to 15 to 23 million marine containers — a line of 244,000 kilometres, about six towers of the Earth.

The deviation from previous work is from the scope of the project. The most cited projections only account for accelerators, which weigh only 13% of the equipment in a data centre. By integrating electrical distribution, cooling, network and backup systems, the actual volume would be 40 to 60 times higher. A 100 MW plant alone accounts for 7,000 tonnes of equipment, including 2,700 tonnes of copper.

The replacement cycles accentuate the phenomenon: two to three years for accelerators, three to four years for the network, five years for inverter and cooling, and eight years for electrical distribution. Jim Puckett, founder of the NGO, notes that the environmental debate on AI focused on electricity, carbon and water, leaving aside the fate of the material itself. The report points out that no major technological actor, government or international body has published a waste management plan.