A study by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is modeling the U.S. network's response to the growth of AI data centers and quantifying what will impact bills.
Economists from the Dallas Federal Reserve published a discussion paper on the effect of data centres on wholesale electricity markets. Their estimate for the existing fleet: an average increase of 2 to 6% in national wholesale prices, with significantly greater differences in the regions where facilities are concentrated.
The prospective part is heavier. By modelling the available supply by 2028, including already programmed power stations, and by adding different volumes of demand related to the calculation centres, the authors obtain demand-weighted average increases ranging from 6 to 29% at national level according to the scenarios, and up to 57% in the most exposed areas; the high-use scenario is approaching the 50% wholesale price increase.
The question of transmission to the consumer remains. The authors recall that the cost of energy represents about half of a retail electricity bill, and that wholesale increases take time to impact on household prices. The effect is therefore staggered, but it is already engaged.
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