By cross-referencing twenty years of satellite observations with propagation simulations, the tool goes beyond the wind warning of classic red flags.
On August 19, 2026, the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio presented an early warning and decision support tool that anticipates the behavior of forest fires by modeling the relationships between hydrological, environmental and meteorological conditions. Its particularity: identifying risk factors up to thirty days before a fire starts.
The system aggregates more than two decades of satellite observations, fire spread simulations, disaster history, vegetation health indicators, soil moisture and weather patterns. Dimitrios Stampoulis, who is leading the project, describes a device that links multiple conditions to fire risk and feeds a dynamic library of extensive histories, where simulated and observed data are matched to actual fires.
Beyond the wind
Basu points out the gap with traditional red flag alerts, which only take into account wind: the tool also assesses the accumulation and condition of vegetation before the fire season, as well as soil moisture. The work is funded by SwRI's in-house research and development program, which has more than $13 million in fiscal year 2025.
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