China: growth reaches 4.5 per cent in the third quarter, driven by a 136 per cent rise in chip exports

Chinese exports of integrated circuits have reached $45 billion, but volumes have risen by just 1 per cent: it is the surge in prices driven by AI that is responsible for the increase.

China's economy grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2026, slightly above the 4.4% expected, and by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter (compared to 0.9% in the second). Over nine months, growth was 4.6%, at the lower end of the official range of 4.5% to 5% targeted for the year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

A price effect more than a volume effect

Customs data shows that exports of integrated circuits jumped 136% to $45 billion. But shipments increased by only 1%: almost all of the increase came from soaring chip prices, boosted by demand for AI. South Korea (+39.1%) and Taiwan (+37.3%) are the fastest-growing destinations, ahead of ASEAN (+28.7%), the European Union (+16.4%) and the United States (+9.8%). In September, total exports reached $447.18 billion, up 36.3% year-on-year.

The contrast with domestic demand is striking: retail sales grew by only 1.1% in September, fixed capital investment fell by 7.2% over nine months and real estate investment by 20.6%, while industrial production accelerated to 6.5%.