Researchers are comparing several methods of analysis to determine whether investments in artificial intelligence are part of a financial bubble or an equipment cycle.
The speculative nature of investments in artificial intelligence has become a major topic of economic debate. This research involves not deciding a priori and comparing several evaluation methods, rather than relying on a single indicator.
The difference regularly cited by skeptics is the difference between infrastructure spending and revenue actually generated: about $400 billion invested annually for some $100 billion in corporate AI revenues. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft's investment expenditures alone approached $300 billion in 2025, an estimated 1.3 per cent share of US GDP, up to 1.6 per cent in 2026.
The arguments in the opposite direction emphasize what distinguishes the period from the internet bubble: companies with real profits and solid cash flows, financing their investments on their results rather than debt. The conclusion that emerges is that speculative conditions are confined to certain segments, rather than a generalized package of markets.
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